无缝线路稳定性可靠度计算及参数敏感性分析

随着我国铁路提速进程的推进,对轨道平顺性的要求日益提高,有砟轨道无缝线路稳定性的研究就显得更加重要。无缝线路稳定性的设计参数（道床横向阻力、轨道原始弯曲、钢轨温升幅度、扣件阻矩系数）具有明显的随机性,运用概率方法对无缝线路稳定性进行分析是十分必要的。本文基于蒙特卡洛方法,分析无缝线路稳定性可靠度,并且采用单参数敏感性分析法,通过改变各参数的平均值,而保持其变异系数不变,对设计参数进行敏感性分析。结果表明,设计参数中的道床横向阻力、轨道原始弯曲、钢轨温升幅度对于无缝线路稳定性可靠度具有较高的敏感性,而扣件阻矩系数对可靠度的影响较小。并且得出一些对于保障行车安全和提高线路养护维修的效益有一定参考价值的结论。

Calculation of Reliability of CWR Track Stability and Parameter Sensitivity Analysis

Along with the development of the speeding up of railways,the requirements for track smoothness is raised increasingly,and the study of the stability of continuously welded rail(CWR) tracks becomes more and more important.The design parameters that affect the stability of CWR tracks demonstrate obvious random variation,and the analysis of CWR track stability by means of probability is essential.By means of the Monte Carlo method,the reliability of CWR track stability is analyzed.By the single-parameter sensitivity analysis method,sensitivity of random variables is studied.It can be concluded that the reliability is more sensitive to the variation of the lateral ballast resistance,initial CWR deflection and range of allowable CWR temperature variation,and that the reliability is less sensitive to the variation of the rail fastening resistance moment coefficients.All the results are valuable to ensuring train operation safety and improving the economic performance of track maintenance and service.