The variation in the value of travel-time savings and the dilemma of high-speed rail in China |
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| Institution: | 1. Manchester Urban Institute, School of Environment, Education and Development, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK;2. Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing, China;1. School of Economics and Management, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, China;2. School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China;1. Department of Logistics and Maritime Studies, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong;2. Asia-Pacific School of Logistics, Inha University, Incheon, South Korea;3. Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, Japan;4. Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, 2053 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada;5. China Academy of Financial Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China;1. School of Economic and Management, Tongji University, China;2. School of Tourism and Management, Shanghai Normal University, China;1. Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, Florida State University, 2525 Pottsdamer St, Tallahassee, FL 32310, United States;2. College of Transportation Engineering, Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the State Ministry of Education, Tongji University, 4800 Cao’an Rd, Shanghai 201804, China;3. China Railway Shanghai Group, 80 Tianmu E. Road, Jing''an, Shanghai 200071, China;4. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, 1173 Glenn Martin Hall, College Park, MD 20742, United States |
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| Abstract: | This paper examines the variation in the value of travel-time savings (VTTS), a fundamental element determining the market demand for high-speed rail. Following a review of time allocation theories, a time allocation model for general travel behavior is proposed as a further elaboration of Evans’ (1972) activities analysis. There are relationships among activities that can be expressed using a linear inequality to show the constraints on the arrangement of activities. This model indicates that two or more activities can be simultaneously rearranged to improve time management, which may be a source of variation in VTTS. This time allocation model can explain why large-scale high-speed rail construction in China faces significant market risks and a high likelihood of economic loss. Data from a new ticket sales and booking system for railway passengers indicate that passengers prefer conventional overnight sleeper trains, rather than high-speed trains, for long-distance travel, which supports the analysis of the time allocation model. |
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| Keywords: | Time allocation model Value of travel-time savings High-speed rail |
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