Regional climate impact of aerosols emitted by transportation modes and potential effects of policies on demand and emissions |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Earth and Space Science and Engineering, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3, Canada;2. Shanghai Liaoyuan Education Group, 150 Pingyang Road, Minhang District, Shanghai 201102, China;3. Department of Physics and Astronomy, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3, Canada;1. P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Moscow, Russia;2. Fedorov Institute of Applied Geophysics, Moscow, Russia;3. Institute of Ocean Sciences, Sidney, B.C., Canada;1. The College of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 219, Ningliu Road, 210044 Nanjing, China;2. State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100080 Beijing, China;3. School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, L69 3GP Liverpool, UK |
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| Abstract: | The transportation system is one of the main sectors with significant climate impact. In the U.S. it is the second main emitter of carbon dioxide. Its impact in terms of emission of carbon dioxide is well recognized. But a number of aerosol species have a non-negligible impact. The radiative forcing due to these species needs to be quantified. A radiative transfer code is used. Remote sensing data is retrieved to characterize different regions. The radiative forcing efficiency for black carbon are 396 ± 200 W/m2/AOD for the ground mode and 531 ± 190 W/m2/AOD for the air transportation, under clear sky conditions. The radiative forcing due to contrail is 0.14 ± 0.06 W/m2 per percent coverage. Based on the forcing from the different species emitted by each mode of transportation, policies may be envisioned. These policies may affect demand and emissions of different modes of transportation. Demand and fleet models are used to quantify these interdependencies. Depending on the fuel price of each mode, mode shifts and overall demand reduction occur, and more fuel efficient vehicles are introduced in the fleet at a faster rate. With the introduction of more fuel efficient vehicles, the effect of fuel price on demand is attenuated. An increase in fuel price of 50 cents per gallon, scaled based on the radiative forcing of each mode, results in up to 5% reduction in emissions and 6% reduction in radiative forcing. With technologies, significant reduction in climate impact may be achieved. |
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| Keywords: | Transportation demand Fleet efficiency Radiative forcing Regional climate impact Aerosols |
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