Modeling the cost of bird strikes to US civil aircraft |
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| Institution: | 1. US Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, National Wildlife Research Center, United States;2. US Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, United States;3. US Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, National Wildlife Research Center, Ohio Field Station, United States;1. Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Iowa State University, 339 Science II, Ames, IA 50011, USA;1. Department of Integrative Biology, Michigan State University, 288 Farm Ln. Rm. 203, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA;2. Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, 1405 S. Harrison Rd., Manly Miles Building, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA;3. Ecology, Evolutionary Biology, and Behavior, Michigan State University, 103 Giltner Hall, 293 Farm Ln. Rm. 103, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA;4. Biology Department, Trinity Western University, 7600 Glover Rd, Langley, BC V2Y 1Y1, Canada;5. Department of Natural Resources, Cornell University, Room 222 Fernow Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA;6. New York State IPM Program, 630 W. North St, Geneva, NY 14456, USA;7. Washington State University Whatcom County Extension, 1000 N Forest St, Suite 201, Bellingham, WA 98225, USA;8. Department of Geography, Environment and Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University, 673 Auditorium Rd. Rm. 212, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA;9. Northwest Michigan Horticultural Research Station, Michigan State University, 6686 S. Center Hwy, Traverse City, MI 49684, USA;10. Huxley College of the Environment, Western Washington University, 516 High St., Bellingham, WA 98225, USA;11. USDA/APHIS Wildlife Services National Wildlife Research Center, 2110 Miriam Circle, Bismarck, ND 58503, USA;1. Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics, China;2. Northwestern Polytechnical University, China;3. Shanghai Aircraft Airworthiness Certification Center, China;1. US Department of Agriculture, Wildlife Services, National Wildlife Research Center, 2110 Miriam Circle, Bismarck, ND, United States;2. Centro de Zoologıa Aplicada, Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal (CONICET-UNC) and Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Córdoba, Argentina;3. National Institute of Agriculture Technology, Paraná Agricultural Experimental Station, Ruta 11, km 12.7, 3101, Oro Verde, Entre Ríos, Argentina;4. Vertebrate Pest Management Department, Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria (INIA) y el Ministerio de Ganadería, Agricultura y Pesca (MGAP) of Millán Ave, 4703, Montevideo, Uruguay;5. US Department of Agriculture, Wildlife Services, National Wildlife Research Center, 2820 East Universirty Ave., Gainesville, FL, United States;1. Department of Aircraft Airworthiness Engineering, School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China;2. Advanced Vehicle Research Center, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China;3. Aircraft/Engine Integrated System Safety Beijing Key Laboratory, Beijing 100191, China;4. Tsinghua Tong Heng Planning Design and Research Institute, Beijing 100085, China |
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| Abstract: | The objective of our analysis is to develop a model of damage costs that arise from collisions between aircraft and birds, based on data drawn from the Federal Aviation Administration National Wildlife Strike Database (NWSD). We develop a two-part model, composed of two separate statistical models, that accounts for the effects of aircraft mass category, engine type, component of the aircraft struck, and the size and number of birds struck. Our results indicate the size of bird, number of birds, and engine ingestions are the largest determinants of strike-related costs. More generally, our result is a model that provides a better understanding of the determinants of damage costs and that can be used to interpolate the substantial amount of missing data on damage costs that currently exists within the NWSD. A more complete accounting of damage costs will allow a better understanding of how damage costs vary geographically and temporally and, thus, enable more efficient allocation of management resources across airports and seasons. |
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| Keywords: | Aircraft Bird strikes Costs Management Probit Regression |
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