北京地铁5号线运营对轨道交通客流预测的启示

对北京地铁5号线运营实际客流与预测客流的差异进行对比，理论联系实际，分析轨道交通客流预测存在的问题及原因，提出从宏观把握城市用地规划、依据实际调查修正预测参数、构造高峰小时矩阵、通过网络进行客流预测时需做好敏感性分析等建议。

Inspiration for Rail Transit Passenger Flow Forecast from the Operation of Beijing Subway Line 5

This paper, through deeply analyzing the difference between actual transit passenger flow and forecasting transit passenger flow of Beijing subway Line 5, put forward questions and reasons of them for passenger flow forecast. It also offered some suggestions, such as macro-grasp of urban land planning, modification of forecasting parameters, constructing peak hour matrixes based on practical investigations and conducting sensitive analysis for passenger flow forecast through network.