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交通拥挤费作为缓解城市交通拥堵的直接而有效的需求管理方法，已在国外部分城市实施. 本文对北京市旧城区实行交通拥挤收费的预期交通影响进行分析. 首先根据旧城区的区位特征，土地利用性质，以及目前交通运行状况，提出在旧城区实行交通拥挤收费的必要性. 然后借鉴国内外城市实行交通拥挤收费的经验，结合北京市实际的出行时间价值调查结论，提出旧城区交通拥挤收费的可行方案. 最后基于北京市宏观交通模型测试了施行拥挤费后的预期交通影响，并对施行拥挤费政策提出了相关建议.

Traffic Impact Analysis of Congestion Charge in Mega Cities

Traffic congestion has become increasingly common in most of mega cities in China. As an effective measure to mitigate traffic congestion, the congestion charge has been accepted in worldwide. This paper forecasts the traffic impact under the condition of implementing congestion charge in the old central districts of Beijing. First, this paper presents the importance of congestion charge according to the location, land use characteristics, and current travel condition of the old central districts. Then, it provides the congestion charge plan scenario by combing the value of travel time of Beijing and experiences from other cities. Finally, the paper evaluates the travel conditions under congestion charge measure based on travel demand model and proposes suggestions of implementing congestion charge.