Error quantification of a high resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: Part3, validation with Continuous Plankton Recorder data

Data collected during the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has been used to validate a three-dimensional hydrodynamic ecosystem model simulation of the North-west European Shelf for the years 1988–89. The CPR time series is unique to the North Atlantic region as a validation tool. Data were extracted from the model to correspond with those collected by the CPR survey, and both the model and survey plankton data were standardised to allow the comparison of model biomass with survey counts. Simple linear regression and absolute error maps provide a qualitative evaluation of spatio-temporal model performance of simulated diatoms, flagellates, total phytoplankton and omnivorous mesozooplankton. Comparisons of z-scores indicate that the model reproduces the main pelagic seasonal features, and there is good correlation between magnitudes of these features with respect to standard deviations from a long-term mean. The model is replicating up to 62% of the mesozooplankton seasonality across the domain, with variable results for the phytoplankton. There are, however, differences in the timing of patterns in plankton seasonality. The validation exercise has highlighted that the spring diatom bloom in the model is too early, suggesting the need to reparameterise the response of phytoplankton to changing light levels in the model. Errors in the north and west of the domain imply that model turbulence and vertical density structure need to be improved to more accurately capture plankton dynamics.