基于灰色动态MGM(1,n)模型的舰船纵摇-升沉运动预报

舰船在实际海况中的运动因受到各种因素的影响而非常复杂,六个自由度之间相互耦合构成一个复杂的系统,因此建立描述舰船运动的系统模型并对各自由度运动进行实时预报具有非常重要的意义.灰色MGM(1,n)模型用微分方程的形式表现了一个系统中n个因素对某个因素变化率的影响,可以用于对非线性复杂系统的系统预测.通过对灰色系统理论的学习发现对原始数据用极差变换进行预处理后会更适合MGM(1,n)模型的拟合,为模型预测打下了良好的基础.在充分的理论研究基础上,本文对船模水池试验获得的纵摇、升沉运动数据以及海浪数据进行极差变换后建立灰色MGM(1,n)模型,并对纵摇、升沉进行非线性预报,得到了较好的效果.

Prediction of coupled pitch-heave based on grey dynamic MGM(1, n) model

Affected by many kinds of factor,the motion of ship is complex in head sea,the coupled six-degree motions consist a system,thus it has significant meaning to build the system model to describe the motion of ship.The grey MGM(1,n) model,characterizing the influence of n parameters to a certain one in the same system by differential equations,can be used to do prediction for non-linear complex system.After the study of Grey System,it was found that the introduction of Range transformation made the data fit the model better,which did well for prediction.In this paper,the grey MGM(1,n) model was built to the pitch-heave and wave data from experiment after doing Range transformation,then did non-linear prediction to pitch-heave motion,and the good result was obtained.