琼州海峡铁路跨海隧道全寿命风险评价

为研究琼州海峡铁路跨海隧道工程建设的可行性以及合理的隧道工程线位、施工工法，以琼州海峡铁路跨海隧道工程预研阶段设计方案为研究对象，从隧道工程建设全寿命角度对设计方案进行风险识别和分析。通过专家调查表方式收集中线盾构法、西线盾构法和西线沉管法3种方案在建设条件、结构设计、工程施工及运营管理阶段的风险评价基础数据，利用模糊层次综合评价法对专家调查表统计结果进行分析，建立模糊评价模型和模糊评价矩阵计算风险评价结果。根据风险评价结果和专家建议，从预研阶段设计方案中选出中线和西线盾构隧道方案为推荐方案。最后结合琼州海峡铁路跨海隧道工程条件，从地质勘查处理、结构设计优化和工程施工措施3方面，提出控制和降低盾构法方案重大风险的建议和措施。

Life cycle Risk Evaluation for Qiongzhou Strait Railway Tunnel

In order to analyze the feasibility, rational route scheme and construction method of Qiongzhou Strait railway tunnel, the risk of pre research design schemes of Qiongzhou Strait railway tunnel is identified and analyzed from the aspect of tunnel life cycle construction. The risk evaluation basic data of construction condition stage, structural design stage, engineering construction stage and operation management stage of 3 schemes of shield methods for middle line and western line and immersed tube method for western line are collected by expert questionnaires; the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) is used to study the statistical results of expert questionnaires; and the fuzzy evaluation model and fuzzy evaluation matrix are established to calculate the risk evaluation results. The shield methods for middle line and western line are recommended according to the risk evaluation results and expert advices. Finally, the suggestions and countermeasures for controlling and reducing major risks of shield method are proposed in terms of geological survey, structural design optimization and engineering construction measurements based on engineering conditions of Qiongzhou Strait railway tunnel.