Time taken for residents to adopt a new public transport service: examining heterogeneity through duration modelling |
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Authors: | Kiron Chatterjee Kang-Rae Ma |
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Institution: | (1) Centre for Transport & Society, School of the Built and Natural Environment, University of the West of England, Bristol, BS16 1QY, UK;(2) Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Chung-Ang University, Anseong-si, Gyeonggi-do, Korea |
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Abstract: | When a new public transport service is introduced it would be valuable for public authorities, financing organisations and
transport operators to know how long it will take for people to start to use the service and what factors influence this.
This paper presents results from research analysing the time taken for residents living close to a new guided bus service
to start to use (or adopt) the service. Data was obtained from a sample of residents on whether they used the new service
and the number of weeks after the service was introduced before they first used it. Duration modelling has been used to analyse
how the likelihood of starting to use the new service changes over time (after the introduction of the service) and to examine
what factors influence this. It is found that residents who have not used the new service are increasingly unlikely to use
it as time passes. Those residents gaining greater accessibility benefits from the new service are found to be quicker to
use the service, although the size of this effect is modest compared to that of other between-resident differences. Allowance
for the possibility that there existed a proportion of the sample that would never use the new service was tested using a
split population model (SPD) model. The SPD model indicates that 36% of residents will never use the new service and is informative
in differentiating factors that influence whether Route 20 is used and when it is used.
Kiron Chatterjee
has been a Senior Lecturer at the University of the West of England, Bristol, since 2003 and previously was at the University
of Southampton. Currently, a main focus of his research is on longitudinal analysis of travel behaviour to improve policy
analysis.
Kang-Rae Ma
received a PhD in Planning from University College London. He worked at the University of the West of England, Bristol, and
the Korea Transport Institute before he joined Chung-Ang University as an Assistant Professor. His research interests include
modelling of travel behaviour and urban excess commuting. |
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Keywords: | Panel data Travel behaviour Dynamics Response lag Duration modelling |
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