两岸直航经济博弈分析

通过采用子博弈精练纳什均衡理论分析的方法,分析两岸迟迟不能实现海上直航的原因。贸易是两岸直航的主要动力;只有当两岸贸易发展到较高程度时,航运业者才会赞成两岸实现直航。此外,有一种实现海上直航的特殊情况存在:两岸贸易的受损集团力量较强却赞成直航,即使两岸贸易发展较弱,也可能实现海上两岸直航。

Economic Game Analysis of Direct Navigation between Mainland and Taiwan

The method of game theory is adopted to analyze the reasons that the direct navigations between Mainland and Taiwan can not be realized so far.Trade should be the main force driving the direct navigations,shipping operators will approve of realization of the direct navigation only when the trade between Mainland and Taiwan is developed at a higher level.But there exists a special case for realizing the direct navigation when the groups having losses in the trade between two sides are strong and they approve of the direct navigation,even if the development of the trade is weak.