东海区近海强风预报模式研究

本文探讨东海区近海强风预报模式。作者首先介绍建立预报模式的思路和步骤,然后作了模式使用说明。为了验证东海区近海等于、大于8级的强风预报模式和判别条件,作者用1986、1987两年日本传真天气图进行试报,准确和基本准确率合为91.1％,文中还展示了随船试验预报结果,准确和基本准确率合为90％。该模式可供航海驾驶人员为航线设计及航行途中订正强风预报时参考。

A Study on the Prediction Model of the Strong Coastal Breeze at the East China Sea

The paper makes a study on the prediction model of the strong coastal breeze at the East China Sea. At the beginning, it introduces the consideration and the precedure of the model, then gives an explanation of the model. To verify the prediction model and the judgement of the strong wind equal to or large than 8 Beaufort scale at the east China sea, the author makes forecasts according to the Japanese synoptic charts in 1987 and 1988. Accuracy reaches 93.1.Besides, the paper demostrates the results of the prediction on board. The accuracy reaches 90. Therefore, the model can be a reference for the navigators to set a course or to make corrections on the strong wind prediction at sea.