低空空域飞行冲突风险研究

为了确定低空空域内航空器飞行的安全间隔和风险概率,基于国际民航组织标准和我国民航局规定,根据航空器动力学原理,采用看见避让(see and avoid)原则,在飞行规则、能见度要求、反应时间、航空器速度以及盘旋坡度角或航空器爬升角度等约束条件下,建立了同高度对头飞行冲突和交叉飞行冲突的冲突避让轨迹数学模型,并根据HCR(human cognitive reliability)理论建立了飞行员反应失效概率模型.数值分析结果表明,低空空域航空器同高度对头相遇存在一定的违反安全间隔的风险概率,而同高度交叉相遇飞行的航空器能安全解脱冲突.

Risk Analysis of Flight Conflict in Low Altitude Airspace

In order to determine the safe separation and risk probability of aircrafts in low altitude airspace, a collision avoidance mathematic model for opposite and intersecting flights at the same level was built under the constraints of flight rules, visibility requirements, response time, aircraft speed, and aircraft turn bank angle or climb angle, by following the ICAO (International Civil Aeronautics Organization) standards, CAAC (Civil Aviation Administration of China) regulations, aerodynamic principles, and see-and-avoid principle. Then, based on the human cognitive reliability (HCR) theory, a response failure probability model of pilots was also built. Numerical analysis results show that in low altitude airspace, there is a certain risk probability of safety separation violation between two head-on aircrafts, but the cross-converging aircrafts at the same level can safely avoid collision.