Estimating choice probabilities among nested alternatives |
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Authors: | Yosef Sheffi |
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Institution: | Civil Engineering Department, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, U.S.A.;Transportation System Center, U.S. Department of Transportation, Cambridge, MA 02139, U.S.A. |
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Abstract: | In several travel choice situations (e.g. automobile ownership level and trip frequency) the alternatives available to an individual randomly chosen from the population exhibit some internal choice-related ranking: the choice of a given alternative implies that all lower-ranked alternatives have been chosen. Such alternatives are referred to as “nested”. This paper presents a model for estimating choice probabilities among nested alternatives. The model is devised from the well known logit model and uses existing logit maximum-likelihood estimation techniques (and computer packages). The approach is shown to be more attractive than the multinomial logit and linear regression models, from a theoretical point of view, yet cheaper than the multinomial probit model. The model is developed in a disaggregate, utility maximization framework. An example application, estimating probabilities of trip frequencies by elderly individuals is presented. |
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