基于分形插值方法的城市轨道交通车站客流拟合与仿真

城市轨道交通车站客流量的变化具有复杂的非线性特点,通过对某些车站一天的客流量时间序列的分析,发现其客流量的变化具有自相似性,并且满足某种拟周期性。本文采用迭代函数系统模型描述城市轨道交通车站客流量的变化特征,用计算机自动求解该迭代函数系统的相关参数,在此基础上采用分形插值的方法模拟产生动态的客流。通过与实际客流调查数据的对比分析可以看出,该方法模拟产生的客流不仅与实际客流较好地吻合,而且能更好地描述客流的非线性特征。

Using Fractal Interpolation Model to Simulate Passenger Flow Sequence in Urban Rail Transit Station

The transient sequel of passenger flow in urban rail transit stations has complex non-linear characteristics.By analyzing a whole day time series of passenger flow in some stations,we find that the passenger flow curve has self-similarity and pseudo periodicity.In this paper,we introduced the fractal interpolation model to represent passenger flow sequences,provided the basic principles and steps to determine the parameters of the fractal Iterated Function System(IFS) and simulated the dynamic passenger flow.Experimental study compared the simulated passenger flow with real passenger flow data.The results show that the fractal interpolation model can be used to simulate passenger flow sequences with considerable practicability,and can be more suitable to describe the non-linear characteristics of traffic flow.