| 路侧事故预测模型的统计分析方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 阚伟生.路侧事故预测模型的统计分析方法研究[J].道路交通与安全,2006,6(12):18-21. |
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| 作者姓名： | 阚伟生 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国农业大学工学院车辆与交通工程系 北京100083 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了泊松分布、负二项分布、零堆积泊松和零堆积负二项4种概率分布形式及模型的评价和检验。并介绍了确定模型中单个变量对路侧事故边际影响弹性分析方法。为道路设计人员和养护人员针对路侧隐患设施给出量化的整改方案,并对各改善措施进行经济评价提供理论依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 预测模型 路侧安全 统计分析 弹性分析 |
Statistical Analysis Method of Roadside Accidents Prediction Model |
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| Kan Weisheng.Statistical Analysis Method of Roadside Accidents Prediction Model[J].Road Traffic & Safety,2006,6(12):18-21. |
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| Authors: | Kan Weisheng |
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| Abstract: | The paper presents Poisson,Negative Binomial, Zero-inflated Poisson and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial four kinds of statistical models,and the estimation and inspection of them.It also introduces the method of elasticity analysis for determining the marginal effects of the independent variables in the run-off-roadway accident.Therefore,the text provides strongly theories basing to road designers and maintainers for establishing quantity renovating projects of hidden trouble performance, and taking evaluation for improving programs. |
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| Keywords: | prediction model roadside safety statistical analysis elasticitya nalysis |
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