基于DEMATEL-ISM的高速公路作业区交通安全影响因素辨识

为提高高速公路作业区交通安全水平，集成DEMATEL-ISM方法对其影响因素进行辨识和分析. 基于人-车-路及环境系统的观点，构建了高速公路作业区交通安全影响因素体系；采用Delphi法分析各因素之间的相互影响关系. 以集成DEMATEL-ISM方法构建了高速公路作业区交通安全影响因素辨识模型；根据多级递阶结构模型的分析结果，确定了影响高速公路作业区交通安全的最直接因素为驾驶员动态判断能力、超速行驶、速度限制、作业区交通量和安全设施布置. 研究结果表明，该方法切实可行，能够对高速公路作业区交通安全影响因素进行定量分析.

Identifying Safety Factors on Expressway Work Zone Based on DEMATEL and ISM

To improve traffic safety levels in expressway work zone, a method is proposed to identify and analyze the influencing factors based on the integration of DEMATEL and ISM. The factors indices system of expressway work zone safety is established according to the system theory of driver-vehicle-road and environment. The interrelations among each pair of indices are determined with the Delphi method. A multilevel step-up structural model on the factors influencing expressway work zone safety is developed by integrating the DEMATEL and the ISM. In terms of the result of this hierarchical modeling, the key factors on expressway work zone safety are presented including driver dynamic decision-making, speeding, speed limit, work zone traffic volume, and safety devices layout. It is shown that the method based on integrating the DEMATEL and the ISM is practical and feasible to quantitatively analyze the safety factors on expressway work zone.