铁路桥梁震害预测及损失估计方法的研究与应用

从震害预测及损失估计入手,以桥梁为例,总结了经验统计法、规范校核法、理论计算法和定性评价法等桥梁震害预测方法,讨论了直接损失和间接损失的估计方法,并在原有方法基础上,参考相关文献,对桥梁直接损失计算方法提出简便算法建议;结合台湾九二一集集地震震害调查,统计了地震前后台湾地区的GDP曲线走势,并根据文献[9]中的方法,评价了间接损失对台湾经济发展的影响;提出了铁路间接损失计算方法建议;分别用经验统计法和定性评价法对集集地震中部分受损桥梁进行了震害预测,理论预测结果与震害基本相符;最后,作者提出了需进一步开展的工作及建议。本文工作可为铁路震害预测及重大铁道工程的抗震设防提供参考。

Study and Application of Railway Bridges Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment and Loss Estimation

The methods about the earthquake vulnerability assessment of railway bridges are reviewed.The calculating methods of the direct and the indirect loss estimation are discussed.Some advice are provided to modify the direct loss calculating method.With the example of the Chi-Chi earthquake,the authors use statistics to draw the GDP curve about Taiwan economics before and after the earthquake,analyze the influnce of the indirect loss on Taiwan economics,estimate the vulnerability of some seriously damaged bridges by the methods of experimence statistics and qualitative evaluation.Finally,the authors point out the next step of work and give some advice.The work specified in this paper can be as reference to railway earthquake vulnerability assessment and to anti-seismic construction of the major railway works.