公交乘客等车时间分布的估算方法研究

针对高频公交服务,以给定车头时距作为已知条件,作者研究了乘客等车时间分布的估算方法,该方法为评价公交服务可靠性奠定基础。依据乘客等车时间分布的定义,通过分析乘客等车时间概率密度,得到了以车头时距为自变量的乘客等车时间概率密度曲线,并以此为基础推导出乘客等车时间分布的一种估算方法。通过分析单车头时距内的乘客等车时间分布以及对应的载客量比例,推导出乘客等车时间分布的另一种估算方法。作者介绍了两种估算方法的应用方法,并以一个实例进行说明。两种估算方法的计算结果相差很小,用户可根据自己的需求选择合适的方法。

Research on the Estimation Methods of Passenger Waiting Time Distribution

In order to provide a basis for evaluating the service reliability of public transit, the passenger waiting time distribution’s estimation methods were developed based on the given bus headways. The methods have consided high frequency transit service. According to the definition of passenger waiting time distribution, the probability density curve of passenger waiting time was derived through analyzing its probability density. The probability density curve took the bus headways as an independent variable.＆amp;nbsp;Based on the probability density curve, a estimation method of passenger waiting time distribution was derived. The passenger waiting time distribution in an individual bus headway was analyzed and the ridership ratio of the individual bus headway was analyzed as well. Meanwhile, another estimation method of the passenger waiting time distribution was derived based on them. The application procedures of these two methods were introduced and illustrated with an example. The difference of the calculating results of these two methods was quite small, and users could choose a suitable one according to their demands.