2014年世界船舶市场评述及2015年展望

对2014年世界经济、航运、造船市场进行回顾,并对2015年的发展方向进行展望。2014年,世界经济总体属于不均衡复苏;航运市场总体表现低于预期,油运市场相对较好,商船队保有量增速持续放缓;新造船市场订单量过亿吨,液货船订单增多,新造船价格呈现中间高两端低的走势。预计2015年世界经济将继续呈现不均衡复苏态势,2014年大宗商品价格的暴跌将有利于世界经济的复苏;航运市场方面,预计集装箱运输市场和油运市场贸易运输需求增速超过运力增速,干散货运输市场继续供大于求;预测2015年油船订单将继续复苏,集装箱船和散货船市场维持2014年的景气度,海工市场看淡。

Review of world ship market in 2014 and beyond

Based on the review of economy, shipping and shipbuilding market in 2014, this paper forecasts the development trend in 2015. In 2014, the recovery of the world economy was unbalanced. The whole shipping market was below expectation, the oil transport market was better than others, and the growth of the merchant lfeet was gradually slowed down. The orders of new shipbuilding have reached over 100 million ton with the increasing orders of liquid cargo tankers, and the prices of new shipbuilding presented an arched shape. In 2015, the unbalanced recovery will continue for the world economy due to the beneift from the signiifcant price drop of bulk commodity in 2014. For the shipping market, the demand growth of the container and the oil trade transport market will exceed the capacity growth, and the dry bulk cargo transport market will remain oversupply. It is predicted that the tanker orders continues recovery in 2015, the market of containers and bulk carriers remains as 2014, and the market of offshore engineering slips into recession.