船舶搁浅的模糊概率计算

目前，计算船舶搁浅的概率时常采用故障树和事件树方法，以确定的概率数表示底事件的发生概率，这种方法的一个不利之处在于无法考虑基本事件发生概率的不确定性，所以无法了解船舶搁浅概率的不确定性，本文引入了合适的模糊数表示基本事件的发生概率，通过模糊计算算法得到了船舶搁浅的模糊概率，并进行了敏感分析，确定了减小船舶搁浅事故发生的措施，与其他方法的计算结果比较表明，本文采用的方法更有利于了解船舶搁浅的概率分布规律。

Fuzzy Probability Calculation of Ship Grounding

At present the fault tree or event tree method is generally applied to calculate the probability of ship grounding,and the certain probability is used to represent the failure probability of basic event.One disadvantage of this method is that the inherent uncertainty of probabilities of basic events can not be taken into account,so we can not know the degree of uncertainty of probability of ship grounding.In this paper, a suitable fuzzy number is introduced to represent the failure probability of basic event;and the fuzzy probability of ship grounding is calculated by fuzzy arithmetic,some improving measures were verified by sensitivity analysis.The result is compared with some results calculated by classical probabilistic methods,it shows that this method is helpful to know more the rule of ship grounding.