基于灰色预测-马尔可夫链-定性分析的铁路货运量预测

科学的货运量预测对铁路发展战略的制定具有十分重要的意义。分析以往对铁路货运量预测的相关文献及其预测精度,并分析影响预测精度的因素,定量分析与定性分析相结合有利于提高预测的准确性。采用灰色预测-马尔可夫链-定性分析相结合的方法对铁路货运量进行预测,经分析表明:灰色模型预测结果精确度受原始数据变化幅度的影响较大,通过马尔可夫链修正,预测结果得到较大改善;由GM(1,1)预测值及马尔可夫状态转移下的最大概率可知铁路货运量的发展趋势;"十一五"期间铁路货运量增长速度将放缓,但仍将保持较高的增长率。

Prediction of Railway Freight Volumes Based on Gray Forecast-Markov Chain-Qualitative Analysis

Forecasting freight volumes scientifically is very important to decision-making of railway development strageties.This paper analyzes forecast accuracy and the factors influential in forecast accuracy.Combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis is beneficial to enhancement of forecast accuracy.This paper forecasts the future development of railway freight volumes by the GM(1,1) method,Markov Chain method and qualitative analysis method.The following conclusions are drawn: Origind data fluctuation has strong impact on the forecast accuracy based on the gray theory,the Markov Chain method may help to modify the forecast accuracy to a great extent;railway freight development is known from the GM(1,1) forecast values and the maximum Markov state transition probability;the freight volume increase will slow down in the Eleventh Five-year plan period,but maintain a high-level increase rate.