中国民航飞机大气污染物排放测算及预测分析

民航是我国重要运输方式之一，但相对于道路等其他运输方式，有关民航飞机对大气污染物排放测算及预测的研究较少. 基于国际通用的油流量法及LTO循环法对我国民航飞机HC、CO、NOx、SO2和细颗粒物排放进行测算及预测，并进行实证分析. 结果表明，我国民航飞机油耗及污染物排放整体呈上升趋势，油耗预计2040 年达到峰值11 826 万t.2018 年，HC， CO，NOx，SO2，PM2.5，PM10排放分别达到11 167，86 785，1 260 131，63 264，11 149，11 359 t，排放强度分别为0.09，0.72，10.44，0.52，0.09，0.09 g/(t ·km).HC 排放在2010 年达到峰值15 433 t， CO 预计将在2025 年达到峰值141 038 t，NOx 和SO2 排放预计在2040 年达到峰值，分别为 235.35万t，11.83万t.

Calculation and Prediction Analysis of Air Pollutant of Civil Aviation Aircraft in China

Although civil aviation is an important transportation mode in China, there are relatively few studies on calculation and prediction of air pollutant emissions from the civil aviation aircrafts. Based on the international fuel flow and LTO (Landing and Take-off) cycle method, this paper calculates and predicts the air pollutant emissions such as HC, CO, NOx, SO2 and fine particulate matter for China civil aviation. The empirical analysis results show that the fuel consumption and air pollutant emissions of civil aviation aircraft in China are increasing gradually, and the fuel consumption is expected to reach a peak of 118.26×106 ton in 2040. The emissions of HC, CO, NOx, SO2, PM2.5 and PM10 are respectively 11 167 ton, 86 785 ton, 1 260 131 ton, 63 264 ton, 11 149 ton and 11 359 ton in 2018. Moreover, the corresponding emission intensities of HC, CO, NOx, SO2, PM2.5 and PM10 are respectively 0.09, 0.72, 10.44, 0.52, 0.09 and 0.09 gram/(ton · kilometer). The HC emissions reached a peak of 15 433 ton in 2010. The CO emissions are expected to reach a peak of 141 038 ton in 2025. The NOx and SO2 emissions are expected to reach the peak of 2.353 5×106 ton and 0.118 3×106 ton in 2040, respectively.