船舶设备风险估计模型探讨

随着船舶设备运行状况复杂化程度越来越明显,风险估计已成为船舶设备管理的一个重要组成部分,但目前完整的船舶设备风险标准和评估体系尚未形成.为此,基于单一设备风险分析,建立了船舶设备总体风险因素指标体系.同时,基于人工神经网络强大的学习能力及任意逼近特性,建立了基于BP神经网络的船舶设备风险估计模型.算例验证表明,该模型实用性强,获得的船舶设备总体风险等级值能够作为采取风险控制措施的依据.

Research on Ship Equipment Risk Assessment Model

With the more complicated operation condition of ship equipment,the risk prediction is looked on as an important part of the ship equipment management,while complete risk standards and evaluation system have not now come into being.So,the system of quota of ship equipments overall risk element is established based on the analysis of single device risk.And taking the fast study and non-linear approach capacity of the neural network into account,a BP neural network-based ship risk assessment model is established.Examples show that the model has practical use in ship risk assessment,and the equipments overall risk level assessed by the proposed model can provide a basis for ship risk control.