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| 多种不确定因素下BOT模式中最优特许期限研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 范瑞郑,万厉,汪小京. 多种不确定因素下BOT模式中最优特许期限研究[J]. 武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版), 2012, 36(2): 311-314,318 |
| 作者姓名： | 范瑞郑 万厉 汪小京 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 华中科技大学管理学院 武汉430072;河南交通投资集团 郑州450052 2. 华中科技大学管理学院 武汉430072;河南高速公路发展有限责任公司 郑州 450052 3. 宁波现代物流规划研究院 宁波315042 |
| 摘 要： | BOT模式已经成为公私合作的基础设施融资的主要方式之一,其中特许期限是BOT项目成功的关键因素,关系到政府部门公共资源,以及项目投资者的投资利润.考虑到BOT项目时间跨度大,存在多种不确定因素,设计了蒙特卡罗模拟模型,用特定的概率分布函数拟合建设工期、建设成本、收费价格、市场需求、运营和维护成本等关键风险因素,进而模拟出项目公司的NPV曲线,在期望的内含报酬率下及给定的置信水平下求解最优特许期限,从而揭示了不确定性因素和特许期限之间的关系.最后,给出一个高速公路BOT项目的算例,证实了算法的有效性. |
| 关 键 词： | BOT模式 特许经营期 净现值 蒙特卡洛模拟 |
Optimal Concession Period in the Built-Operate-Transfer Project Under Multiple Uncertain Factors |
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| Fan Ruizheng , Wan Li , Wang Xiaojing. Optimal Concession Period in the Built-Operate-Transfer Project Under Multiple Uncertain Factors[J]. journal of wuhan university of technology(transportation science&engineering), 2012, 36(2): 311-314,318 | |
| Authors: | Fan Ruizheng Wan Li Wang Xiaojing |
| Affiliation: | 4) (School of Management,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)1)(Henan Transport Investment Group Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450052,China)2)(Henan Highway Development Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450052,China)3) Ningbo Logistics Planning and Research Institute,Ningbo 315042,China)4) |
| Abstract: | Built-operate-transfer(BOT) is becoming an increasingly popular option of project delivery,and the concession period is a key decision faced by both the government and private investor.Therefore,this paper aims to optimize the concession period in the BOT project by using net present value(NPV).Due to the difficulties in estimating the long-term uncertainties,this paper develops a Monte Carlo simulation model to reveal the relationship between the uncertainties and concession period.At the end,a numerical example is given to provide the optimal concession period. |
| Keywords: | BOT concession period net present value Monte-Carlo simulation |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |