| 公交浮动车辆到站时间实时预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙棣华, 赖云波, 廖孝勇, 赵敏, 刘卫宁. 公交浮动车辆到站时间实时预测模型[J]. 交通运输工程学报, 2011, 11(2): 84-89. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2011.02.014 |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙棣华 赖云波 廖孝勇 赵敏 刘卫宁 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.重庆大学 自动化学院, 重庆 400044;;2.重庆大学 信息物理社会可信服务计算教育部重点实验室, 重庆 400044;;3.重庆大学 计算机学院, 重庆 400044 |
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| 基金项目： | 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20090191110022) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据公交浮动车辆实时GPS数据, 考虑不同时段的路段平均速度、公交车站、信号灯等多因素的影响, 建立了一种新的公交车辆到站时间预测模型。通过估计到达下游最临近站点的时间和判断道路上GPS数据的有效性等方法, 改善了预测模型的精度, 并应用重庆公交车辆数据对模型进行验证。计算结果表明: 该模型能够实时预测公交浮动车辆到达下游站点的时间, 预测精度优于现有方法, 在高峰时段预测误差小于9%, 在非高峰时段预测误差约为6%, 并对各种道路交通条件具有较好的适应性。
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| 关 键 词： | 公共交通 公交浮动车辆 到站时间 路段平均速度 实时预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-12-15 |
Real-time prediction model of arrival time for floating transit vehicle |
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| SUN Di-hua, LAI Yun-bo, LIAO Xiao-yong, ZHAO Min, LIU Wei-ning. Real-time prediction model of arrival time for floating transit vehicle[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2011, 11(2): 84-89. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2011.02.014 |
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| Authors: | SUN Di-hua LAI Yun-bo LIAO Xiao-yong ZHAO Min LIU Wei-ning |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Automation, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China;;2. Key Laboratory of Dependable ServiceComputing in Cyber Physical Society of Ministry of Education, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China;;3. School of Computer Science, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China |
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| Abstract: | According to the real-time GPS data of floating transit vehicle,the effects of road section average speeds,bus stations and traffic lights were considered,and a novel prediction model of bus arrival time was proposed.The precision of prediction model was improved by estimating arrival time to the nearest downstream station and judging the effectiveness of GPS data on raod section.The prediction model was tested and verified by using the transit vehicle GPS data of Chongqing City.Calculation result indicates... |
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| Keywords: | public transport floating transit vehicle arrival time road section average speed real-time prediction |
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