基于系统动力学的中欧班列运价调整仿真研究

为促进中欧班列的可持续发展，对中欧班列的运输价格调整进行研究分析。结合影响中欧班列运价的因素，包括运输成本、供给能力、市场需求、市场竞争、补贴力度及对外贸易发展趋势，提出运用系统动力学的方法解决中欧班列的运价调整问题。建立系统动力学模型，以中欧班列（成都）为例对模型进行仿真试验，仿真结果验证了模型的可行性。通过多种方案对比，提出了在市场需求和政府补贴变化情况下的中欧班列运输价格调整方法，即需求系数上下浮动4个单位，运价调整范围在50美元/TEU内；为维持中欧班列价格优势，保持中欧班列货源吸引力，政府补贴降速应在30%以内，即运价涨幅在200～500美元/TEU之间，为中欧班列运价调整方向和范围提供参考。

Simulation of China-Europe Railway Express freight price adjustment based on system dynamics

In order to promote the sustainable development of China-Europe Railway Express, this paper studied and analyzed the freight price adjustment of China-Europe Railway Express. Combined with the related factors affecting the price of China-Europe Railway Express, including transport costs, supply capacity, market demand, market competition, subsidies and the development trend of foreign trade, the paper proposed the method of system dynamics to solve the problem of China-Europe Railway Express pricing adjustment, established the system dynamics model, and tested the model by taking China-Europe Railway Express (Chengdu) as an example. The simulation results verified the feasibility of the model. The paper proposed a method to adjust the transport price of China-Europe Railway Express under the change of market demand and government subsidies through comparison of various schemes. When the demand factor fluctuated by 4 units, price adjustment range could be within 50 USD/ TEU. To maintain the price advantage and the attractiveness of China-Europe Railway Express cargo sources, government subsidies reduction speed should less than 30%, which means the increased freight prices should within 200～500 USD/TEU. It can provide reference for the direction and scope of freight price adjustment of China-Europe Railway Express.