铁路重车到达预报与卸车预警系统研究与开发

铁路卸车业务管理缺乏准确的重车到达预报信息,难以及时发现卸车量与车站卸车能力不匹配,致使卸车组织工作常处于被动的局面.为此,充分利用现有的车流历史信息和车流实时追踪信息,研究开发了铁路重车到达预报与卸车预警系统.文章介绍该系统的架构和功能,详细描述重车到达预测算法和卸车分级预警机制.该系统能够动态预测未来3日内全国铁路...

Research and development of railway loaded car arrival prediction and unloading capacity early warning system

Due to the lack of accurate information on loaded car arrival, it is difficult to find the mismatch between unloading volume and station unloading capacity in time, which often leads to a passive situation of freight unloading organization. Thus, the railway loaded car arrival prediction and unloading capacity early warning system is developed by making full use of existing historical data of freight traffic and real-time loaded car tracking data. This paper introduces the architecture and functions of the system and describes the loaded car arrival prediction algorithm and the graded unloading capacity warning mechanism in detail. This system can dynamically predict the arrival time of freight cars loaded with goods of different categories to be received at all railway freight stations in the next three days. Once the system discovers the number of loaded cars predicted to be received at a station exceeding its unloading capacity, graded early warnings will be triggered immediately and adjustment tactics for freight traffic organization will also be recommended automatically to assist the dispatchers working at different levels to take corresponding measures timely in a coordinated manner so as to reduce the accumulation of loaded cars waiting for unloading and shorten the turnaround time of freight cars, thus helping promote lean management of freight car unloading and improve the level of freight traffic dispatch and command.