A model for forecasting public transit |
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| Institution: | 1. Urban Planning Group, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands;2. School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, PR China;3. Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, Guangzhou, PR China;1. Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore;2. School of International and Public Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 1954 Huashan Road, Shanghai 200030, China;3. Department of Logistics and Maritime Studies, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China;4. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Haidian District, Beijing 100190, China |
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| Abstract: | This study develops a model that explains public transit ridership in Orange Country, California over quarterly periods during the 1974–1988 period. The model uses a Cobb-Douglas functional form and a Cochrane-Orcutt iterative procedure to measure the association between public transit ridership and the potential number of users, relative level of public transit service, relative price of public transit, seasonality, and external shocks. Relative measures of the explanatory variables are used to reduce the potential for multicollinearity and give greater confidence in the reliability of the estimated elasticities. The model is then used to prepare conditional quarterly forecasts for ridership in 1988 and unconditional quarterly forecasts during the 1989–1993 period. |
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