生鲜农产品供应链物流风险传递机理及控制

为更好反映物流作业时间偏差产生的损耗风险传递情况，基于物流服务时间约束条件下，对物流延误造成的超期风险在生鲜农产品供应链中的传递问题进行了分析.首先，借鉴传染病学的疾病传播原理，将传染源、传播载体、受染者3个传染要素引入到物流风险传递识别中，获取物流超期风险五个要素，物流作业标准、管理能力、环境保障、物流延期和空间风险传递；其次，构建了生鲜农产品供应链物流风险的传递模型，采用数值分析迭代法，得到风险传递下供应链整体超期风险值；最后，研究了控制自身风险、空间传递和物流延迟等参数对供应链超期风险值的影响并通过算例进行分析.研究结果表明:在链式供应链沿单一物流方向传递情况下，风险值测算能够有利于发现控制风险传递的关键节点，对关键节点的风险要素优化后能有效减少供应链风险值；节点2和节点4被识别为供应链超期风险产生的关键节点，风险值为0.45和0.39.对占比较高的环境保障、空间传递因素进行优化后，使得供应链超期风险值从原有的0.39减少为0.29. 

Risk Transfer Mechanism and Control in Logistics of Fresh Agriculture Product Supply Chain

In order to better reflect the transmission of financial risk caused by the time deviation of a logistics operation, the transmission problem of overdue risk caused by logistics delays in the supply chain of fresh agricultural products was analysed, based on the condition of time constraints of a logistics service. First, by applying the principles of disease transmission of lemology, the three infectious elements, which are infection source, transmission carrier, and infected person, were introduced into the identification of logistics risk transmission, and five risk factors were established. These included logistics operation standards, management ability, environmental protection, logistics extension, and spatial risk transmission. Then, the numerical analysis of an iterative method was used to calculate the value of the supply chain overdue risk based on the risk transfer model of logistics of a fresh agricultural products supply chain. In addition, the factors that influence the overdue risk value of a supply chain, which is affected by controlling risks, were studied including internal nodes, spatial transfer, and logistics delay. These were analysed using an example. The analysis showed that calculating the risk node is beneficial to finding the key node for controlling risk transmission, and after optimizing the risk elements of key nodes it can be used to reduce the risk value effectively for the circumstance when the supply chain follows a single logistics direction. In the example analysis, nodes 2 and 4 were recognized as the key nodes for generating the supply chain overdue risk and their risk values were calculated as 0.45 and 0.39, respectively. After the factors were optimized the overdue risk value of the supply chain was reduced from 0.39 to 0.29.