山体滑坡灾害险情的水上交通管制模式

为了保障船舶航行安全和维护航道通航效率，以大中规模剧动式岩土混合体滑坡及其涌浪为对象，在大量案例统计资料、物理模型实验、文献查阅及实地调研资料等基础上，根据滑坡变形破坏阶段和环境外力诱发因素研判山体滑坡发生概率，根据滑坡破坏变形阶段、滑坡涌浪规模、环境外力诱发因素、通航环境限制条件研判山体滑坡灾害的海事综合风险；根据其海事风险演变特征，提出以交通管制形式和限航等级为要素的水上交通管制模式，交通管制形式依据山体滑坡灾害发生概率确定，限航等级依据山体滑坡灾害综合海事风险而确定.研究结果表明:当山体滑坡灾害发生概率为0.6、山体滑坡灾害综合海事风险分别取值1.80和2.25时，应分别实施戒备性通航和限定通航形式的限制性通航；当山体滑坡灾害发生概率为0.72、综合海事风险分别取值2.16和2.70时，应分别实施限定船舶对象与限定通航时间相结合的限制性通航和禁航. 

Control Mode of Waterway Traffic under Dangerous Mountain Landslide Conditions

The control mode of waterway traffic under dangerous mountain landslide conditions was studied to safeguard ship navigation and enhance the transportation efficiency of water channels. Large-scale surge generated by paroxysmal mountain landslides was considered based on a considerable amount of case data, conclusions from physical model experiments, conclusions from consulting the literature, and data from practical investigation. The occurrence probability of mountain landslides was estimated according to the stage of landslides deformation and effects of external environmental forces. The maritime risk caused by mountain landslides was assessed according to the stage of landslides deformation, the scale of the surge generated by mountain landslides, and effects of external environmental forces and restricted environmental conditions on ships. The control mode of waterway traffic, which included forms of traffic control and prohibited levels of ship traffic, was designed based on evolving traits of maritime risk. The form of traffic control should depend on the estimated occurrence probability of mountain landslide, and the prohibited level of ship traffic should depend on maritime risk caused by the mountain landslide. A case study shows that, when the occurrence probability of a mountain landslide is 0.6 and the maritime risk of a mountain landslide is 1.80, the alert mode of traffic control must be adopted. When the occurrence probability is 0.6 and the maritime risk is 2.25, the mode of traffic control with a definite ship flow form must be adopted. When the occurrence probability is 0.72 and the maritime risk is 2.16, the mode of traffic control with definite ship objects and definite time must be adopted; when the occurrence probability is 0.72 and the maritime risk is 2.70, the prohibited mode of traffic control is necessary.