| 基于灰色SCGM(1,1)_b模型的道路交通事故短期预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王亚军,黎子卿.基于灰色SCGM(1,1)_b模型的道路交通事故短期预测分析[J].交通科技与经济,2009,11(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王亚军 黎子卿 |
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| 作者单位： | 军事交通学院,汽车指挥系,天津,300161 |
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| 摘 要： | 在综合研究已有经验的基础上,将灰色系统的SCGM(1,1)b模型应用于全国道路交通事故短期预测研究.通过对比验证,预测结果较为理想,表明该模型可以作为交通事故预测的一种有效手段,可为交通管理部门提供可靠的决策依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 SCGM(1 1)b模型 道路交通事故 预测 |
Research on the Road Traffic Accident Short Term Prediction Based on Grey System's SCGM(1,1)_b Model |
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| WANG Ya-jun,LI Zi-qing.Research on the Road Traffic Accident Short Term Prediction Based on Grey System's SCGM(1,1)_b Model[J].Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications,2009,11(5). |
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| Authors: | WANG Ya-jun LI Zi-qing |
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| Institution: | Automobile Transport Command Department;Academy of Military Transportation;Tianjin 300161;China |
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| Abstract: | In order to provide reliable decision-making source for the management.After absorbed predecessor's experience,used the grey system's SCGM(1,1)b model in the road traffic accident short term prediction.By the contrastive validation,the ideal prediction result revealed that this model can be one choice of the road traffic accident prediction. |
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