国际大城市机动化交通出行方式结构变化特征研究及应用

为研究大城市交通出行结构变化特征，给国内各城市制定交通发展策略提供参考，选取亚洲、欧洲、北美洲的大城市和超大城市，收集各城市交通出行方式结构特征数值，通过横向、纵向对比，梳理中心城区、外围城区间的差异，总结各城市交通发展策略。最后，以深圳为例，分析其近年交通出行方式结构的变化趋势，预判未来的交通出行方式结构特征。研究结果表明，人口规模较大、土地资源相对受限的亚洲地区的新加坡、首尔、香港3 座城市，采用了以公共交通为主导的机动化出行结构；国际4 大都市东京、伦敦、巴黎、纽约中心城区内公共交通发挥着重要作用，其中东京、伦敦公共交通出行比例占绝对优势。在相同的空间尺度下，国内城市人口规模一般远超过国际大城市，在人口密度高、道路交通设施供给能力有限的中心城区，公共交通尤其是轨道交通必须占据主要地位。

Change Characteristics of Motorized Traffic Mode Structures inInternational Metropolises

To get the change characteristics of traffic mode structures in metropolises, and provide reference for traffic development strategies of cities in domestic, the metropolises in Asia, Europe and NorthAmerica were chosen and the characteristic values of traffic mode structures in these cities were collected. Through horizontal and vertical comparison, the differences between central urban areas and peripheral urban areas were analyzed and the traffic developing strategy of each city was summarized. TakingShenzhen as an example, the variation trends of its traffic mode structure in recent years were analyzed,and the characteristics of its traffic mode structure in the future were predicted. The results show that the cities of large population size and limited land resource in Asia, such as Singapore, Seoul, Hong Kong, are mainly using a motorized travel structure dominated by public transport. In the center urban area of Tokyo, London, Paris, New York, public transportation plays an important role. The proportion of publictransportation in Tokyo and London is the absolute advantage. At the same spatial scale, the populationsize of domestic cities are bigger than that of international metropolises, so public transportation especially the urban rail transit must occupy the main position in center urban areas with high populationdensity and limited road supply capacity.