基于灰色关联理论的宁波市交通运输产业结构分析

为优化交通运输产业结构，推动交通运输产业的发展，需要对交通运输产业结构进行定量 评价，进而提出准确、有效的交通运输产业发展策略。为此，从交通经济的视角审视交通运输业 发展和产业结构演变间的关系，以灰色理论为基础，构建了宁波市交通运输产业结构灰色评价模 型。运用灰色关联分析方法，对2011—2014 年宁波市交通运输产业结构进行了定量分析。根据关 联度权重计算结果，水路运输、航空运输和城市交通的灰色关联度较大，对交通经济的发展起主 导作用。同时，研究表明，宁波市交通运输产业结构体系已初步形成，但也呈现产业结构比例失 调、增产速度不一，产业结构之间的关联性和互补性不高等特征。在此基础上，提出优化宁波市 交通运输产业结构的三大战略，包括：加强交通及相关产业的互动融合、加大交通主导产业培 育、重视引导航空运输业发展。

Transportation Industry Structure Analysis of Ningbo Based on Grey Relational Theory

With the purpose of optimizing the transportation industry structure and promoting its development, it is need to quantitatively evaluate the structure and propose the accurate and effective development strategy of transportation industry. The relations between the development of transportation and evolution of industry structure were observed from the perspective of traffic economy. A grey evaluation model was built for transportation industry structure of Ningbo based on the grey theory. Through the grey relational analysis method, the quantitative analysis for the transportation industry structure from 2011 to 2014 of Ningbo was conducted. According to the calculation results of the correlation degree, the grey correlation degree of waterway transportation, air transportation and urban traffic were large, which played a leading role in the development of traffic economy. The research results reveal that the structure system of transportation industry has been initially formed. But it also presents the characteristics of imbalance in industrial structure, multi-speed of development, and fragile industrial correlation and complementarity. Thus, three strategies were proposed to optimize the transportation industry structure of Ningbo: strengthening the interactions between the transportation and related industry, intensifying the cultivation of the transportation leading industry, paying attention to guide the development of air transportation.