| 基于消耗间断的消耗规律预测方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐建斐,陈红,黄志勇,董琪.基于消耗间断的消耗规律预测方法研究[J].舰船电子工程,2014(4):145-147,151. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐建斐 陈红 黄志勇 董琪 |
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| 作者单位： | 91115部队;海军航空工程学院研究生管理大队;海军军械部;海军航空工程学院; |
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| 摘 要： | 针对维修器材使用阶段消耗数据存在间断性的低消耗特征,使得预测非常困难的问题,在对消耗数据进行Markov性分析的基础上,引入Monte Carlo仿真技术,构建了基于Markov与Monte Carlo仿真预测模型,在规划仿真流程的同时,结合具体案例,验证了该模型解决消耗数据间断性问题的有效性.
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| 关 键 词： | 维修器材 消耗规律 仿真 马尔科夫 蒙特卡罗 |
Consumption Law Prediction Approachs Based on Consumption Data |
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| XU Jianfei,＇,CHEN Hong,HUANG Zhiyong,DONG Qi.Consumption Law Prediction Approachs Based on Consumption Data[J].Ship Electronic Engineering,2014(4):145-147,151. |
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| Authors: | XU Jianfei ＇ CHEN Hong HUANG Zhiyong DONG Qi |
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| Institution: | 2 (1. No. 91115 Troops of PLA, Zhoushan 316000) Department of Graduate Students＇ Brigade, Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University, Yantai 264001) (3. Naval Ordnance Department, Beijing 100841) (4. Department of Training, Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University, Yantai 264001) |
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| Abstract: | Aiming at the problem that consumption data sometimes were discontinuous, on the basis of Markov analy- sis, the simulation prediction model of Markov and Monte Carlo was established by the application of Monte Carlo simulation technology. Then the corresponding simulation flow was planned. Finally, the effectiveness and accuracy of models were demonstrated with examples. |
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| Keywords: | maintenance material consumption law simulation Markov Monte Carlo |
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