基于统计推断的电子设备突发故障预测方法研究

针对电子设备突发故障预测问题,在一定置信度的前提下,基于样本的故障数据对总体的分布进行极大似然估计和分布拟合检验,确定其分布规律,进而基于故障数据分布函数建立电子设备突发故障预测模型,对电子设备未来一段时间内的突发故障概率进行预测,并进行实例分析,验证了预测模型的合理性.

Catastrophic Fault Prognostic of Electronic Equipment Based on Statistical Inference

To deal with catastrophic fault prognostic problem of electronic equipment, distribution regularity of the overall is got by maximum likelihood estimation and distributing fitting testing based on the fault data of sample on the premise of a certain degree of confidence. Then the catastrophic fault prognostic model of electronic equipment is established based on the distribution function of fault data and the catastrophic fault probability of electronic equipment in a future time could be predicted. Finally, the experiment result validates the rationality of the prognostic model.