基于模糊预测的高速铁路客流OD 表的推算方法

科学预测客流的变化趋势与波动及获取路网客流OD 表是制定旅客列车开行 方案的依据.结合高速铁路客运的运营实际，利用客流变化相对稳定特征，本文提出了客 流OD 表的反推方法和计算流程，该方法的计算工作量相对叠加法节省了（n2-2n）.考虑 实际客流日波动特征，依据模糊预测原理，建立了车站客运指标的时间序列模糊预测方 程和预测方法，该方法可获取预测期客运指标的变化区间.以南方一高速铁路线为背景， 对车站发送人数进行了预测，预测值与实际数据相比误差在1%以内.在车站发送人数预 测的基础上，给出了线路客流OD 表的反推演算.

An Estimation Method of Passenger OD Flows of High-speed Railway Network Based on Fuzzy Predication

Forecasting the variation tendency and fluctuation of passenger flows and obtaining OD matrix of passengers in high speed railways are the base of scheming the passenger trains. In view of relative steady variation of passenger flows, the estimation method and process of passenger OD matrix are present combining with China railway transport in this paper. The method is able to reduce the calculated amount of （n2–2n）while ensure the results exactitude. In consideration of day-fluctuation of passengers, the time series forecasting model and method of passengers is put forward based on fuzzy math, and the range of variation of passengers are estimated. Background on a South high speed railway line, sending passengers of stations are estimated in the predictive period and the predictive errors compared to actual data are less than 1%. Based on estimating sending passengers of stations, passenger OD matrix of the line is reckoned.