基于离差最大化的地铁车站踩踏风险评价

为有效评估地铁车站发生拥挤踩踏事故风险的大小,文章建立基于离差最大化的地铁车站拥挤踩踏风险评价模型。首先,建立地铁车站拥挤踩踏事故风险的评价指标;其次,利用离差最大化方法研究地铁车站拥挤踩踏事故风险评价指标的权重,并以此为基础,建立地铁车站拥挤踩踏事故风险评价方法;最后,利用离差最大化模型对地铁车站实测的数据进行分析及评价,并得到各车站拥挤踩踏事故风险的大小及排序。研究结果表明:基于离差最大化方法能够充分利用客观信息对车站拥挤踩踏事故风险的大小进行分析及评估,该方法具有可行性和有效性。

Risk assessment of subway station stampede accident based on maximum deviation

In order to effectively evaluate the risk of subway station congestion stampede accident,this paper establishes a subway station congestion stampede risk evaluation model based on the maximum deviation.First of all,it establishes the evaluation index of the subway station crowded stampede accident risk,secondly,it studies the weight of the evaluation index of the subway station crowded stampede accident risk by using the method of maximizing the deviation,and then establishes the evaluation method of the subway station crowded stampede accident risk.Based on the abovementioned,it analyzes and evaluates the measured data of the subway station by using the model of maximizing the deviation,and gains the magnitude and sequence of the risk of crowded stampede accident in each station.The results show that the method based on the maximum deviation makes full use of objective information to analyze and evaluate the risk of station congestion and stampede accident,and this method is feasible and effective.