运用Excel?建立路面性能马尔可夫预测模型

以一高速公路试验路路面性能数据为基础，结合Microsoft Office Excel?表格的Solver求解器建立路面性能指标曲线的指数回归方程,并通过拟合的指数回归方程计算出状态转移概率矩阵。再根据已知的初始路面状况概率分布，得出某一时间的路面性能概率分布，最终达到预测这一时间路面性能的目的。经分析知道:运用Microsoft Office Excel?表格建立马尔可夫模型不仅方便、操作简单，且具备很高的路面性能预测能力，在实际工程中具有广阔的应用前景。

Application of Excel for Establishment of Markov Model for Prediction of Pavement Performance

Based on the pavement performance data of certain test highway and combined with the solver of Microsoft Office Excel sheet, the exponential regression equation of pavement performance index curve is established; and the matrix of status transition probability is calculated through the fitting exponential regression equation. Then according to the known probability distribution of initial pavement status, the probability distribution of pavement performance at certain time could be obtained for the final purpose of prediction of pavement performance at this time. It is known through analysis that the Markov Model could be establish conveniently with Microsoft Office Excel sheet and operated simply; moreover, it is capable of prediction of pavement performance well and has good application prospect in practical engineering.