| 基于MATLAB的灰色拓扑在交通事故预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 林登科,陈伯辉,沈斐敏.基于MATLAB的灰色拓扑在交通事故预测中的应用[J].交通标准化,2014(21):6-11. |
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| 作者姓名： | 林登科 陈伯辉 沈斐敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 福州大学环境与资源学院,福建 福州,350108 |
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| 基金项目： | 福建省自然科学基金计划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对道路交通安全的严峻形势，利用灰色拓扑预测的理论方法，对福建省交通事故死亡人数进行了分析预测，并利用MATLAB程序实现。在对福建省108个月（2005年1月-2013年12月）交通事故死亡人数分布特征分析的基础上，选定一组阈值，根据阈值建立相对应的GM（1，1）模型组，利用模型组对未来可能出现的阈值范围内的年月份进行预测。经检验，模型组精度等级良好，该方法具有一定的实用性和可靠性，可供交通部门参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通事故 灰色拓扑预测 GM(1 1)模型 阈值 |
Application of Grey Topological Method in Forecasting Traffic Accident Based on MATLAB |
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| LIN Deng-ke,CHEN Bo-hui,SHEN Fei-min.Application of Grey Topological Method in Forecasting Traffic Accident Based on MATLAB[J].Communications Standardization,2014(21):6-11. |
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| Authors: | LIN Deng-ke CHEN Bo-hui SHEN Fei-min |
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| Institution: | (College of Environment and Resources, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350108, China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the grim situation of traffic safety, the article analyzed and forecasted the traffic deaths in Fujian Province by using topological forecast method which belonged to grey system theory , and used MATLAB program to achieve the calculation. According to statistical data of traffic accident hap-pened between 2005 and 2013 in Fujian Province, the article determined a group of threshold values, es-tablished GM（1,1） model in groups, and forecasted the time traffic accident which would occur in future by using GM（1,1） model. The results show that the gray topological prediction model accuracy reaches lev-el 1 standard. This method is scientific and practical, the forecast results will be of a certain guiding sig-nificance to relative departments. |
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| Keywords: | traffic accident topological forecast method GM(1 1) model threshold value |
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