| 基于GM(1,1)模型的道路交通事故预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 王彦军,孙有信.基于GM(1,1)模型的道路交通事故预测[J].交通科技与经济,2007,9(5):97-98. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 王彦军 孙有信 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 兰州交通大学,交通运输学院,甘肃,兰州,730070;兰州交通大学,交通运输学院,甘肃,兰州,730070 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 道路交通事故的发生虽具有偶然性,但也可利用预测理论的方法加以预测。在分析道路交通安全系统灰色属性的基础上,提出将道路交通事故作为道路交通安全系统行为特征量处理,运用灰色理论和方法来进行道路交通事故预测,在此基础上,建立了道路交通事故的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,并通过实例验证了预测模型的适用性。
|
| 关 键 词： | 道路交通事故 灰色系统 GM(1 1)模型 预测 精度检验 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-5696（2007）05-0097-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-05-10 |
Forecast of road accidents based on GM(1, 1) model |
| |
| WANG Yan-jun,SUN You-xin.Forecast of road accidents based on GM(1, 1) model[J].Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications,2007,9(5):97-98. |
| |
| Authors: | WANG Yan-jun SUN You-xin |
| |
| Institution: | College of Transportation Management Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China |
| |
| Abstract: | The occurrence of road accidents is fortuitous,however,which can be obtained by using forecast theory.Based on the analysis of grey attribute for road traffic safety system,road accident be regaided as behavior character in road traffic safety system,and forecasted by using grey theory and grey method.In this foundation,the GM(1,1) grey forecasting model for road accidents is built.The efficiency of the forecasting model is examined through an example. |
| |
| Keywords: | road accident grey system GM(1 1) model forecast accuracy test |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
