基于WRF模式新疆铁路网大风灾害研究

大风灾害对铁路建设影响日益突显,为解决偏远地区铁路前期规划设计阶段常常遇到气象资料匮乏问题,使用高分辨率WRF模式模拟风速作为常规气象风速观测补充,分析研究新疆铁路网沿线日平均风速,为已建成铁路沿线防风工程和未来铁路规划提供基础数据。研究表明:通过对比站点实测风速与模拟风速,可以发现新疆北疆地区模拟风速在冬季呈现高估现象,而在夏季呈现低估现象;模拟风速在新疆南疆地区整体呈现高估现象。总体上,模式模拟风速可以模拟新疆复杂地形下风速变化。在1979~2013年间,多年平均大风日数反映出已建成的兰新铁路和南疆铁路仅在百里风区、三十里风区、南疆前三十里风区有较大值;规划中的克塔铁路、库格铁路、和罗铁路和哈将铁路在山区复杂地区大风日数有较大值。除兰新铁路三十里风区附近地区大风日数呈现减弱趋势,新疆其余地区大风日数呈现不同程度增加趋势。大风指数分析发现规划中和罗铁路、库格铁路、哈将铁路、克塔铁路大部分线路大风指数均处在高值区,且均以每10年8 m/s以上速率增加。

Study on Wind Disaster of Xinjiang Railway Networks Based on WRF Model

To solve the lack of wind speed observation in the planning and construction of railway in remote areas,this study uses high resolution WRF model's simulation to study gale wind disasters. The result shows that the WRF's wind speed can generally capture the wind speed 's spatial patterns in Xinjiang complex terrain. In 1979 ~ 2013,the mean days with gale wind reflects that Sanshili wind region,Baili wind region and Nanjiang Sanshili wind region along the constructed Lanxin Railway and Nanjiang Railway have more strong wind days than other regions in Xinjiang. The railways on planning have more strong wind days only in mountainous region with complex terrain. All regions except Baili wind zone tend to have more gale days. The gale wind index analysis shows that most sections of the planned railways,such as Luohe Railway,Kuge Railway,Hajiang Railway and Keta Railway are located in regions with higher gale wind index with increasing rate of 8 m/s per 10 years.