基于属性数学的铁路重载运输安全评价

铁路重载运输设施设备要求高,确保其安全运行意义重大。属性数学理论主要研究和解决定性描述的度量和不同的定性描述之间的关系问题,基于此,从人员、设备、环境及管理4个方面建立包含3层级28项指标的铁路重载运输安全综合评价指标体系;采用德尔菲法和模糊统计法得到指标初始权值,并通过灰色关联法判断指标权值的合理性。建立铁路重载运输安全综合评价模型,重点利用属性集和属性测度理论研究并制定单指标等级划分标准,采取正规模糊子集以及置信度准则等方法构造属性测度函数以及属性识别准则。以呼和浩特铁路局大包线重载运输为例,应用所建模型评价其安全等级,评价结果符合呼和浩特铁路局实际情况,表明所建模型能较好适用于铁路重载运输安全综合评价。

Safety Assessment of Heavy-haul Transport Based on Attribute Mathematics

Due to strict requirements for heavy-haul facilities,their safety is extremely significant to normal train operation. Attribute mathematics theory is used to study the measurement and relationship of qualitative description. Based on the theory,this paper establishes a safety assessment index system of heavy-haul transport, including 28 indexes divided into 3 levels in terms of human, equipment,environment and management. By using Delphi method and fuzzy statistics method,the initial weights of indexes are acquired,and the rationality of the index weights is judged through gray correlation method.Then,a model is established for comprehensive assessment of heavy-haul transport,grade classification of single index is conducted with attribute set and attribute measure theory,and attribute measure functions and attribute recognition criterion are constructed through normal fuzzy subset method and confidence criterion. Finally,the model is applied to assess the safety of heavy-haul transport in Datong-Baotou line of Hohhot Railway Bureau and the result conforms to the actual situation of the Hohhot Railway Bureau,which shows that the model can well be applied in the safety assessment of heavy-haul transport.