中国现代交通运输业效率波动性和影响因素研究 ——基于交叉效率DEA 和VAR 模型的分析

选取1978–2012 年的数据，应用交叉效率数据包络分析法(Cross-efficiency DEA)和向量自回归模型(Vector Autoregression, VAR)对中国现代交通运输业的效率波动 情况及其影响因素进行分析.研究结果表明，交通运输业的投入和产出要素之间，均存在 单向格兰杰(Granger)因果关系；交通运输业的效率波动可以划分为效率上升、高效运行 和效率下降三个阶段，总体上呈现出“先升后降”的趋势；交通运输业对人均消费、政府支 出、能源消耗和固定资产投资的冲击均表现出正向为主的响应，对劳动的冲击表现出负 向响应，而对信息的冲击则表出响应“滞后”

Efficiency Volatility and Influence Factors of Chinese Modern Transportation Industry Based on the Model of Cross-efficiency DEA and VAR

In order to explore the efficiency volatility and influence factors of Chinese modern transportation industry based on the data from 1978 to 2012, the Cross-efficiency DEA and VAR model are adopted. The result proves that, one- way Granger casualty relationship exists, respectively, between the input variables and output variables; the efficiency volatility of modern transportation can be divided into three stages: efficiency improvement, high efficiency operation and efficiency loss, which shows the trend of “rising first, then falling”in general; the response of transportation industry to the shock of per capita consumption, government spending, energy consumption and fixed- asset investment are positive, while to the shock of labor factor is negative, what’s more,“lag effect”exists in the response of transportation industry to the shock of information element.