基于竞争风险模型的居民活动-出行计划研究

对出行者活动-出行计划行为的研究有助于进一步解析出行者的行为决策机理，也是制定和实施交通管理政策的前提.本文扩展了传统的基于单一删失事件的生存风险研究，将竞争风险模型应用于出行者活动时间分配行为的研究，基于吉林市居民出行数据的分析，提取出行者制定活动计划的影响因素，通过敏感性分析，解析出行者在连续时间轴上活动参与类型与活动持续时间的联合选择过程.结果表明：出行者N次与N+1 次活动之间存在相互联系、相互制约关系，且关系强度又随着参与活动类型的不同而存在显著差异，竞争风险模型能有效应用于这些差异性的分析，丰富和扩展了出行行为的分析理论与方法.

Activity-travel Schedule Planning Based on Competing Risk Hazard Model

The study of the schedule planning of travelers helps to understand the process of travelers’ decisions. Also it is the premise of enacting and implementing traffic management strategy and policy. A competing risk hazard model, which describes simultaneously the duration of the present activity and the choice of the next activity, is presented. The application of the model extended to the field of traditional hazard models which account for only one delete events. The model is estimated based on the survey data of Jilin City, China. The covariates used in the model represent factors that affect activity scheduling. The estimated model suggesting that there is interrelated and constraint relationship between N and N+1 times activities of travelers, Moreover, the strength of that relations are change significantly with type of activities. The competing risk models used in this paper are a useful tool for describing such differences. These fundamental works is help for enriching and expanding the travel behavior analysis theory and method.