Incorporated probability that a fleet meets a given permissible value for the hull girder section modulus loss

The paper presents a study on the incorporated probability that a tanker fleet meets a given permissible value of hull girder strength loss. The analysis was based on a database of hull girder section modulus (HGSM) for as-gauged girth belts of tankers. It was found that its mean value is below 5% over the entire life span of the analyzed tanker fleet. The Weibull probabilistic distribution was found to best represent the time-varying HGSM loss. A method was developed for calculating the incorporated safety of a fleet. As an example, the IMO requirement for a maximum HGSM reduction of 10% relative to its required value was analyzed, accounting for time-variant HGSM loss and including a probabilistic model for coating longevity. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and not necessary those of ABS.