基于云模型的隧道突水突泥风险评估

突水突泥灾害是隧道施工最常见的事故类型之一,构建基于云模型的突水突泥风险评估模型,以指导隧道施工组织中的灾害预防工作。从水文条件、地质条件和气候条件三个方面展开研究,建立风险评估指标体系。针对评价指标模糊性与随机性的特点,应用逆向云发生器生成风险云特征数字,应用正向云发生器生成风险云与标准云对比图,表征突水突泥和各级评价指标的风险状态。以某隧道为工程背景进行计算,该隧道突水突泥综合风险等级为高,风险不可接受,需进行管理决策,规避转移风险;夏季雨水集中,极易引起大气降雨向地下运移,造成大规模的突水突泥灾害;评估结果与工程实际基本一致,可为灾害预防工作提供理论依据。

Risk Assessment of Water Gushing and Mud Bursting in Tunnels Based on Cloud Model

Water gushing and mud bursting is one of the most common accidents in tunnel construction.In order to guide disaster prevention in tunnel construction organization,a risk assessment model of water gushing and mud bursting is constructed based on cloud model.The risk assessment index system is established based on researches on hydrology condition,geological condition and climate condition.According to the randomness and fuzziness of the evaluation indexes,the backward cloud generator is applied to obtain the risk cloud feature digitals,then the normal cloud generator is used to form comparison pictures of risk clouds and standard clouds,which demonstrates the risk status of water gushing and mud bursting and the evaluation indexes at all levels.With reference to a tunnel engineering of unacceptable high integrated risk level of water gushing and mud bursting,management decisionmaking is required to avoid and transfer the risk.The concentrated summer rainfall is likely to lead the atmospheric rainfall to the underground,resulting in large-scale water gushing and mud bursting.The evaluation results are basically consistent with engineering practices,providing a theoretical basis for disaster prevention.