铁路隧道工程可行性研究阶段风险评估研究

风险评估对于铁路隧道工程的建设和项目选线具有重要意义。针对铁路隧道工程风险评估在可行性阶段对应的风险类别与风险因素,建立基于AHP法的多因素模糊综合评价体系以及相应的隧道风险等级定量评判标准。模型根据专家对各风险类别和风险因素相对发生概率的定性评判,通过AHP法计算得到各风险类别和风险因素在整个风险评估体系中发生的相对概率,并将风险事件发生后果等级赋予相应的风险分值。最终结合得到的概率与风险分值通过模糊综合评价得到隧道综合风险评估分值和其对应的风险等级,从而对铁路隧道工程风险进行综合、定量、直观的评估。将A隧道运用该体系进行分析评价,得到其在可行性研究阶段的综合风险评估值为4. 774,风险等级为中度。

Research on Risk Assessment of Railway Tunnel Engineering in the Feasibility Study Phase

Risk assessment is of great importance to the railway tunnel engineering and route selection.The thesis establishes a multi-factor fuzzy comprehensive evaluation system and quantitative evaluation standard based on AHP method for the risk categories and risk factors of railway tunnel engineering in the feasibility study phase. The relative occurrence probabilities of risk categories and risk factors in the whole risk assessment system could be calculated by experts' qualitative judgments on the relative occurrence probabilities of each risk category and risk factor with AHP. The risk event consequence level is assigned with corresponding risk score. The comprehensive risk assessment score and corresponding risk grade of tunnel could be obtained by means of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method with obtained probabilities and risk sore. Thus,the risk of railway tunnel engineering is evaluated comprehensively,quantitatively and intuitively. The comprehensive risk assessment sore of the A tunnel is 4. 774 and its risk grade is medium based on systematic analysis and evaluation in the feasibility study phase.