舰船材料疲劳统计分析中的贝叶斯方法

讨论了舰船材料疲劳统计分析中的贝叶斯方法，将疲劳模型中的未知参数作为随机变量处理，利用贝叶斯定理求出参数的后验分布密度，然后建立不同存活率下的贝叶斯疲劳曲线的求解方程；最后再编程进行计算，结果表明，贝叶斯方法既考虑了统计上的不确定性，又合理解决了疲劳试验数据中的越出问题。

Statistical Analysis on Fatigue Characteristic for Marine Materials

In this paper,Bayesian method for statistical analysis of fatigue data for marine materials is discussed. In the Bayesian method,the unknown parameters in the fatigue model are considered as random variables. Firstly,a posterior probability mass function of parameters is calculated from the available data set using Bayes' theorem. Secondly,a fatigue curve equation with different expected survivability is established. Finally,a computer program is developed so that the fatigue curves from any set of fatigue data can be obtained. The results show that the Bayesian method is capable of handling both statistical uncertainty and fatigue fun-outs.