| Abstract: | The 'Asian 'flu' has caused uncertainty about the future of product shipping in Asia. Product shipping is a difficult business, subject to the vagaries of such factors as local and regional supply/demand imbalances, refinery inputs, outputs and utilization rates, storage and terminalling considerations, product quality differences, price differentials, seasonal variations, and port traffic. This paper covers the Asia-Pacific product demand and trade by type in four major submarkets: Australasia, Southeast Asia, South Asia and East Asia. Forecasts are created of product demand by type and country, assessing likely additions to refinery capacities, and conducting computer-modelling exercises that simulate refinery output and product blending. The difference between product output and product demand in any given country is assumed to equate to trade. The analysis suggests that Asian economies will recover during the 2000-2005 period, and that there will be an increase in the petroleum product trade. |
